In July, the import volume of DOP was 1,643.11 tons, a decrease of 43.54% compared with the same period of last year. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 57,709 tons, down 10.13% year-on-year; the export volume in July was 2,915.98 tons, up 48% year-on-year, from January to July. The export volume was 8662.9 tons, an increase of 303% year-on-year. buy PG from Evergreen
In July, the domestic price of DOP was low. The average monthly price in Jiangsu was 7462 yuan/ton. The lowest price appeared at the end of the month, at 7100 yuan/ton, while the average import price in July was 7640 yuan/ton. Domestic prices showed a downward trend. Merchants have limited intention to buy imported goods. In addition, the Taiwan factory also has low sales intentions to the mainland. Therefore, only 1,500 tons of contract supply was supplied in July, which led to a significant drop in imports. From the current arrivals and transactions, domestic Imports in August were about 2,600 tons, still at a relatively low level, and still mainly based on contract sources.
In 2019, the number of DOP exports increased significantly. The export volume in July was 2,915.98 tons, an increase of 1532% from the previous month. It can also be seen in Figure 2 that the overall increase is more significant. In addition, as can be seen from Figure 3, the first export volume in the market is greater than the import volume. In the case, the export volume is 1273 tons more than the import volume. China's domestic price is low. From January to July, the average price in Jiangsu is 7,920 yuan/ton. In the same period of 2018, the average price was 8,704 yuan/ton, down 9.01% year-on-year. Low is also an important factor in the increase in DOP exports.
In 2019, the number of exporting countries reached more than 42 countries. Figure 4 shows the situation of some exporting countries. It can be seen that Indonesia, North Korea and Vietnam are the top three exporting countries, accounting for 26%, 8% and 7% respectively.
The overall domestic trade situation is grim, and the regional and enterprise competition is under great pressure. Actively developing the export market is also one of the ways to relieve stress.
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Supply and Demand Pattern, PTA Upcoming Winter
Recently, the PTA market has fluctuated within the range of 5100-5150 yuan. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not prominent, and there is no news of speculation. Fundamentally, the PTA device is at a high load and suppresses the PTA price. The downstream polyester load has risen slightly, and production and sales have improved under the promotion. Just need to be positive. The contradiction between supply and demand is still not prominent, and the maintenance of PTA equipment in the market has become the key. buy DMC from Evergreen
From the August PTA supply and demand balance sheet calculation, PTA presents a small pattern of de-stocking. On the one hand: the PTA large-scale equipment maintenance plan failed to arrive as expected. In contrast, the short-term stoppage of small-sized installations increased, and the load of Fuhaichuang equipment decreased, resulting in lower-than-expected overall supply in August. On the other hand, the load on the polyester plant rose from 84.05% at the beginning of the month to a high level of 89.37%. At the same time, a new installation of 900,000 tons (300,000 tons in a production line of Hengbang and 300,000 tons in Hengyi 2 production lines) was put into operation. Just need to maintain stability.
Unsupervised equipment, accounting for 24.66% of total capacity
According to the current PTA maintenance plan, the maintenance of the equipment in the market is not yet clear. In contrast, the news of 2.2 million tons of Xinfengming and 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical has been put into production. Based on the inspection time of the same period last year, it can be seen from Table 2 that the unsupervised production capacity is as high as 12.4 million tons, and most of them are concentrated in October, accounting for 24.66% of the total production capacity. If Xinfengming and Hengli Petrochemical can be put into production as scheduled, the impact of PTA plant overhaul on the market will be limited. If the new equipment is put into production and the equipment maintenance is on schedule, the PTA market may rebound.
There are still 2.48 million tons of new production prospects on the polyester side.
In terms of polyester, the current load is constantly increasing, and the factory's finished product inventory pressure is not large, and the overall profit is still acceptable. Enterprises such as Yisheng, Tongkun and Xinfengming have new capacity plans, and the new production is expected to be 2.48 million tons. According to the market situation, the probability of new production of polyester plants is large, and some devices may be delayed. Therefore, the demand for PTA in the market is limited.
On the whole, the demand for PTA remains stable, and if there is no major change in the device, it is just needed. The high probability of PTA new equipment being put into production is steadily advancing, and there is no problem before and after the time, but there are variables in the maintenance of old equipment. Assuming that the new PTA device is put into production as scheduled, and the historical installation is in normal condition, the PTA will only be slightly accumulated in the next September-November. At present, the PTA processing fee is around 950 yuan / ton, which is also considerable for the factory.
It is expected that the new equipment will be put into production in the long-term view of the hollow state. In the absence of large funds, the market price will not improve. Generally speaking, the current contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not prominent, and there is a lack of speculation. The market must get rid of the disadvantages and still need the cooperation of time, location and people.
From the August PTA supply and demand balance sheet calculation, PTA presents a small pattern of de-stocking. On the one hand: the PTA large-scale equipment maintenance plan failed to arrive as expected. In contrast, the short-term stoppage of small-sized installations increased, and the load of Fuhaichuang equipment decreased, resulting in lower-than-expected overall supply in August. On the other hand, the load on the polyester plant rose from 84.05% at the beginning of the month to a high level of 89.37%. At the same time, a new installation of 900,000 tons (300,000 tons in a production line of Hengbang and 300,000 tons in Hengyi 2 production lines) was put into operation. Just need to maintain stability.
Unsupervised equipment, accounting for 24.66% of total capacity
According to the current PTA maintenance plan, the maintenance of the equipment in the market is not yet clear. In contrast, the news of 2.2 million tons of Xinfengming and 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical has been put into production. Based on the inspection time of the same period last year, it can be seen from Table 2 that the unsupervised production capacity is as high as 12.4 million tons, and most of them are concentrated in October, accounting for 24.66% of the total production capacity. If Xinfengming and Hengli Petrochemical can be put into production as scheduled, the impact of PTA plant overhaul on the market will be limited. If the new equipment is put into production and the equipment maintenance is on schedule, the PTA market may rebound.
There are still 2.48 million tons of new production prospects on the polyester side.
In terms of polyester, the current load is constantly increasing, and the factory's finished product inventory pressure is not large, and the overall profit is still acceptable. Enterprises such as Yisheng, Tongkun and Xinfengming have new capacity plans, and the new production is expected to be 2.48 million tons. According to the market situation, the probability of new production of polyester plants is large, and some devices may be delayed. Therefore, the demand for PTA in the market is limited.
On the whole, the demand for PTA remains stable, and if there is no major change in the device, it is just needed. The high probability of PTA new equipment being put into production is steadily advancing, and there is no problem before and after the time, but there are variables in the maintenance of old equipment. Assuming that the new PTA device is put into production as scheduled, and the historical installation is in normal condition, the PTA will only be slightly accumulated in the next September-November. At present, the PTA processing fee is around 950 yuan / ton, which is also considerable for the factory.
It is expected that the new equipment will be put into production in the long-term view of the hollow state. In the absence of large funds, the market price will not improve. Generally speaking, the current contradiction between supply and demand in the market is not prominent, and there is a lack of speculation. The market must get rid of the disadvantages and still need the cooperation of time, location and people.
Xylene Market News Summary
At the end of August, the focus of the xylene market was 6,000 yuan/ton. The market was forced to operate, the shortage of cargo and the decline in inventory provided good support, which led to the market talks pushed to 6160-6180 yuan / ton. Entering the xylene market in September, the dry goods were the first to hit. buy PC from Evergreen
Demand side:
In August, the Sinochem Hongrun PX unit was opened, and its xylene was all converted to its own use. From the current production situation, there are still a few gaps. And from the perspective of supply and flow of xylene, the probability of purchasing cargo is slightly higher.
In late August, Fuhai Chuang PX unit restarted, and the consumption of raw material xylene recovered to normal. However, due to the stocking in the early stage, the amount of purchases entering the market at the beginning of next month was limited; however, the gap in demand for MX was maintained at around 30,000 tons.
Hainan Refining & Chemical's 1 million tons PX unit was put into production until the end of September, and its market impact is more subtle.
Entering next month, Hengli Petrochemical maintains 30,000 tons of MX purchases nearby, and all of them are mainly purchased by ship, causing tight supply of domestic xylene cargo.
Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, there is still room for improvement in refined oil. Although the price of xylene is high, some gasoline blending demand is still there.
Supply surface:
In late August, the Qingdao refinery was restarted. In September, the sales volume of the company returned to normal. The main supply was for the downstream Qingdao Lidong and the system to adjust the goods, and the balance was sold around.
The sales volume of xylene in the Qinzhou refinery of PetroChina has been reduced by half, and the small sheet of xylene in South China still has a chance to fluctuate.
Demand side:
In August, the Sinochem Hongrun PX unit was opened, and its xylene was all converted to its own use. From the current production situation, there are still a few gaps. And from the perspective of supply and flow of xylene, the probability of purchasing cargo is slightly higher.
In late August, Fuhai Chuang PX unit restarted, and the consumption of raw material xylene recovered to normal. However, due to the stocking in the early stage, the amount of purchases entering the market at the beginning of next month was limited; however, the gap in demand for MX was maintained at around 30,000 tons.
Hainan Refining & Chemical's 1 million tons PX unit was put into production until the end of September, and its market impact is more subtle.
Entering next month, Hengli Petrochemical maintains 30,000 tons of MX purchases nearby, and all of them are mainly purchased by ship, causing tight supply of domestic xylene cargo.
Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, there is still room for improvement in refined oil. Although the price of xylene is high, some gasoline blending demand is still there.
Supply surface:
In late August, the Qingdao refinery was restarted. In September, the sales volume of the company returned to normal. The main supply was for the downstream Qingdao Lidong and the system to adjust the goods, and the balance was sold around.
The sales volume of xylene in the Qinzhou refinery of PetroChina has been reduced by half, and the small sheet of xylene in South China still has a chance to fluctuate.
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Weakness in Demand for Raw Materials, Weak Pressure, and Non-aqueous Hydrofluoric Acid
At the beginning of the month, Sinochem was priced at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Juhua was 10,800 yuan/ton, Dongyue was 10,900 yuan/ton, Meilan was 11,100 yuan/ton, and the on-site contract price was down by 500- from July. 800 yuan / ton; in mid-August, the hydrofluoric acid plant stocks high, actively clear inventory, downstream refrigerant demand is weak, to fixed production, buying follow-up fatigue, pharmaceutical industry centralized maintenance, the market is lacking, the focus of the transaction At the end of August, the price of raw fluorite fell, and the downstream refrigerant was difficult to change. Under the double pressure, the market of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to decline. As of press time, the bidding reference in northern China was sent at 9700-100 yuan/ton. By the way, the southern China region's bidding reference is at 9800-100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market transactions are concentrated at 9600-10000 yuan/ton. buy propylene glycol
In August, most of the anhydrous hydrofluoric acid enterprises contracted their profits. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises stopped the maintenance and adjusted the finished goods inventory. The raw material fluorite price was slightly lowered, but the factory cost pressure is still as shown in the figure: August domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid The average gross profit of the market was 1,238 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton from the average profit of 1858 yuan / ton in July.
In terms of forecasting costs, fluorite ore and plant selection profits are considerable, mainstream holders cut prices, but high-grade spot supply is still tight, 97 wet powder is unlikely to fall sharply, and some market participants believe that September 2,800 yuan / ton The price sent is more reasonable; in terms of supply, Linxi Tianyi, Polyfluoride, San Aifu and other manufacturers stopped maintenance, fluoride potassium, Feiyuan, Yantai Zhongrui single-line operation, the factory to sell, the offer to accompany the market; demand side The refrigerant price is weak, the buying follow-up is weak, the market is not smooth, and the transaction is difficult. On the whole, the price of raw fluorite has fallen, but it is still not expected from the hydrofluoric acid plant. The cost pressure is still high. Some factories are on the verge of loss. Some factories are shutting down to adjust the finished goods inventory. The downstream refrigerants are difficult to improve. It is not smooth, the difficulty of goods, the lack of support for the fundamentals, the pessimism of the industry, it is expected that the focus of the short-term market negotiations will continue to decline, it is expected to be around 9,500 yuan / ton in September.
In August, most of the anhydrous hydrofluoric acid enterprises contracted their profits. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises stopped the maintenance and adjusted the finished goods inventory. The raw material fluorite price was slightly lowered, but the factory cost pressure is still as shown in the figure: August domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid The average gross profit of the market was 1,238 yuan / ton, down 620 yuan / ton from the average profit of 1858 yuan / ton in July.
In terms of forecasting costs, fluorite ore and plant selection profits are considerable, mainstream holders cut prices, but high-grade spot supply is still tight, 97 wet powder is unlikely to fall sharply, and some market participants believe that September 2,800 yuan / ton The price sent is more reasonable; in terms of supply, Linxi Tianyi, Polyfluoride, San Aifu and other manufacturers stopped maintenance, fluoride potassium, Feiyuan, Yantai Zhongrui single-line operation, the factory to sell, the offer to accompany the market; demand side The refrigerant price is weak, the buying follow-up is weak, the market is not smooth, and the transaction is difficult. On the whole, the price of raw fluorite has fallen, but it is still not expected from the hydrofluoric acid plant. The cost pressure is still high. Some factories are on the verge of loss. Some factories are shutting down to adjust the finished goods inventory. The downstream refrigerants are difficult to improve. It is not smooth, the difficulty of goods, the lack of support for the fundamentals, the pessimism of the industry, it is expected that the focus of the short-term market negotiations will continue to decline, it is expected to be around 9,500 yuan / ton in September.
Stearic Acid Rose Several Times in August
Entering August, the stearic acid market ushered in the most "fire" month of the year. The data shows that the market price of stearic acid rose by 3 times during the month, and the cumulative increase rate was about 500 yuan/ton. Although the current stage is in the off-season of downstream demand, the price of stearic acid continues to rise. What are the reasons?
According to Longzhong Information Analysis, the main reason is driven by the sharp rise in the price of raw palm oil. At present, the stearic acid market in China is mainly imported stearic acid and domestic stearic acid. Most of them use palm oil as the main raw material. The price of palm oil has a direct impact on the market of stearic acid.
As can be seen from the price chart of raw palm oil, palm oil began to bottom out at the end of July 2019. As of August, the cumulative increase was about 400 yuan / ton. On the 26th, the raw material price reached the highest in the year. As of the close, the main contract of palm oil futures rose 126 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.59%, the highest price reached 5034 yuan / ton. What is the reason for the surge in raw materials?
First, South American soybeans have risen sharply, import costs have risen, and soyoil prices have risen. Second, the escalation of Sino-US trade issues, the current rainy and cold weather in the Northeast, boosting the price of soybean oil, palm oil as a substitute for soybean oil, the price is higher.
It is expected that in the short term, the stearic acid market is still likely to rise, the production of raw palm oil is reduced, and the downstream is about to enter the peak demand season. buy dimethyl carbonate In the short term, the stearic acid market is favored. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the price of raw palm oil.
According to Longzhong Information Analysis, the main reason is driven by the sharp rise in the price of raw palm oil. At present, the stearic acid market in China is mainly imported stearic acid and domestic stearic acid. Most of them use palm oil as the main raw material. The price of palm oil has a direct impact on the market of stearic acid.
As can be seen from the price chart of raw palm oil, palm oil began to bottom out at the end of July 2019. As of August, the cumulative increase was about 400 yuan / ton. On the 26th, the raw material price reached the highest in the year. As of the close, the main contract of palm oil futures rose 126 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.59%, the highest price reached 5034 yuan / ton. What is the reason for the surge in raw materials?
First, South American soybeans have risen sharply, import costs have risen, and soyoil prices have risen. Second, the escalation of Sino-US trade issues, the current rainy and cold weather in the Northeast, boosting the price of soybean oil, palm oil as a substitute for soybean oil, the price is higher.
It is expected that in the short term, the stearic acid market is still likely to rise, the production of raw palm oil is reduced, and the downstream is about to enter the peak demand season. buy dimethyl carbonate In the short term, the stearic acid market is favored. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the price of raw palm oil.
Pure Benzene Industry Chain Operating Rate Continued to Decline in July
The monthly production of pure benzene in July 2019 was estimated to be 847,000 tons. During the month, Liaoyang Petrochemical's set of reforming equipment was overhauled for 10 days, another set of reforming equipment was overhauled for the whole month, and the constant force reforming started the load was less than 2 weeks. Fuhai created 240,000 tons of equipment for parking for the whole month, and Dushanzi's 310,000 tons of equipment. Overhaul for 10 days. In addition, Shandong Haihua, Shandong Youtai, Qingdao Refinery, and Kenli Petrochemical, which were restarted in July, were postponed and restarted. In other respects, CNOOC Taizhou, Huizhou, Dayu Petrochemical and other installations fell to 70% within the month, Fujia Dahua 350,000 tons of equipment load is low, Qingdao Lidong 295,000 tons of equipment load is low.
The operating rate continued to decline in July. Affected by product profit, the operating rates of Fujia, Lidong, CNOOC Huizhou, CNOOC Taizhou and CNOOC Datun decreased, and Fuhai Chuang, Shandong Haihua, Shandong Youtai, Qingdao Refining and Chemical, and Yanli Petrochemical extended their overhaul. period. In addition, the production of pure benzene decreased during the month due to its upstream installation problems. The maintenance period of Dushanzi was advanced from July 29th to July 20th, and began to drop at the beginning of the month. propylene carbonate market
The maintenance equipment from August to October was concentrated in August, and it is expected that the import volume will be difficult to recover in August, and the overall supply will be tight. In addition, Chongqing Huafeng's 32 million tons alcohol ketone plant and Baling Hengyi 100,000 tons of caprolactam new plant are expected to be put into operation in August, and demand is increasing. Therefore, it is expected that the overall supply and demand in East China will be tight in the third quarter.
The downstream statistics of pure benzene are mainly composed of styrene, phenol ketone, aniline, caprolactam, adipic acid and other products.
The downstream operating rate of pure benzene in July decreased from the previous month. Downstream, the Jilin Cornell aniline unit was restarted and the Wanhua MDI unit was restarted. Qingdao Bay styrene short-term parking, Shandong Wuyuan styrene parking, Dushanzi styrene parking, etc., Jinmao aniline parking. Zhejiang Juhua, Shandong Haili Caprolactam briefly stopped, Shijiazhuang Refinery, Fujian Shenyuan Caprolactam long-term parking device restarted.
In the main downstream products of pure benzene in July, the profit of styrene was better, the profit of caprolactam and adipic acid was general, and the loss of phenol and aniline.
In terms of downstream load, styrene and phenol are relatively stable, and they remain at 8-9 percent. The caprolactam load was reduced to 60%, MDI and adipic acid were only started at 50%, and the aniline operating rate fell below 50%.
The operating rate continued to decline in July. Affected by product profit, the operating rates of Fujia, Lidong, CNOOC Huizhou, CNOOC Taizhou and CNOOC Datun decreased, and Fuhai Chuang, Shandong Haihua, Shandong Youtai, Qingdao Refining and Chemical, and Yanli Petrochemical extended their overhaul. period. In addition, the production of pure benzene decreased during the month due to its upstream installation problems. The maintenance period of Dushanzi was advanced from July 29th to July 20th, and began to drop at the beginning of the month. propylene carbonate market
The maintenance equipment from August to October was concentrated in August, and it is expected that the import volume will be difficult to recover in August, and the overall supply will be tight. In addition, Chongqing Huafeng's 32 million tons alcohol ketone plant and Baling Hengyi 100,000 tons of caprolactam new plant are expected to be put into operation in August, and demand is increasing. Therefore, it is expected that the overall supply and demand in East China will be tight in the third quarter.
The downstream statistics of pure benzene are mainly composed of styrene, phenol ketone, aniline, caprolactam, adipic acid and other products.
The downstream operating rate of pure benzene in July decreased from the previous month. Downstream, the Jilin Cornell aniline unit was restarted and the Wanhua MDI unit was restarted. Qingdao Bay styrene short-term parking, Shandong Wuyuan styrene parking, Dushanzi styrene parking, etc., Jinmao aniline parking. Zhejiang Juhua, Shandong Haili Caprolactam briefly stopped, Shijiazhuang Refinery, Fujian Shenyuan Caprolactam long-term parking device restarted.
In the main downstream products of pure benzene in July, the profit of styrene was better, the profit of caprolactam and adipic acid was general, and the loss of phenol and aniline.
In terms of downstream load, styrene and phenol are relatively stable, and they remain at 8-9 percent. The caprolactam load was reduced to 60%, MDI and adipic acid were only started at 50%, and the aniline operating rate fell below 50%.
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