First, the price trend
In August, the propane market was narrowly adjusted. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 3,615 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 3692.5 yuan / ton. The monthly increase was 2.14%, and the price fell 31.06% compared with the same period of last year. Propylene Glycol
Second, the analysis of influencing factors
Products: Propane prices fluctuated mainly this month, and the market trading atmosphere was average. As of August 30, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical propane was stopped for use, and no quotation is available. The ex-factory price of propane in the supply and marketing company of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group is 3,600 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3,700 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical is 3,750 yuan/ton. Propane of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. The ex-factory price is 3720 yuan / ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group propane ex-factory price is 3700 yuan / ton, Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. propane ex-factory price is 3700 yuan / ton, Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi propane ex-factory price is 3630 yuan / ton, The ex-factory price of Sinopec Qingdao refinery and chemical propane is 3,400.
Industry chain: In August, the liquefied gas (Shandong market) was narrowly adjusted in a narrow range. The international crude oil price this month still has a large impact on the liquefied gas market. At the beginning of August, the price of liquefied petroleum gas continued to be low, and the downstream market was aggressively entering the market. The factory shipments were smoother and the stocks were not pressured, and then pushed up. However, due to the decline in international crude oil, the increase was not large. In mid-August, the typhoon affected the production and transportation of the manufacturers. The shipments were blocked for several days and the prices fell. Subsequently, the weather affected gradually weakened, the factory shipments returned to normal, the inventory was eased, and the international crude oil pushed up the market to drive the market higher. However, the shipment has been briefly improved. Although the traditional sales season is coming, the demand increase is limited. In addition, the CP is expected to fall in September, and the downstream market is bearish and the market enthusiasm is weak. Factory shipments returned to a dull level, and prices fell again at the end of August. Until the introduction of CP in September, although propane fell but the magnitude was less than expected, the market mentality eased and the price rose slightly.
In August, the price of propylene market fluctuated and the fluctuations were still frequent. In total, there were three peaks and troughs. The polypropylene powder, butanol and propylene oxide were all profitable, and the customers' purchases were positive. In August, the domestic acrylic market stepped up, reaching 3.04%, which was good for the propylene market; the epichlorohydrin began to oscillate. Downside, the monthly decline was 23.28%, and the monthly amplitude was as high as 28.63%. The recent market is dominated by consolidation, or there is a certain negative impact on the price of propylene.
In August, the overall propane market rose slightly, mostly due to shocks. At the beginning of the month, the price of CP was released in August, and the propane dropped slightly, which brought bad news to the market. In addition, the international crude oil fell sharply on August 2, affecting the market mentality. The downstream market was not enthusiastic, and the manufacturers were not well-sold. The propane price shift shifted downwards. However, in mid-August, with the continuous rise of international crude oil, the propane market was boosted, the downstream market entered the market with enthusiasm, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the stocks were pressureless, and they actively pushed up, and the prices stopped falling and rebounded. However, August is still a low season for traditional demand. The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. In addition, the CP is expected to fall in September, and the price is blocked. Until the end of August, the price of CP was released in September. Although propane decreased compared with last month, the decline was less than expected, the market mentality was supported, and the price rose slightly.
Saudi Aramco announced in September that the price of propane was lowered and the price of butane was flat. Propane was $350/ton, down $20/ton from last month; butane was $360/ton, unchanged from last month. The cost of long-term propane conversion to the shore is about 3022 yuan / ton, butane is about 3100 yuan / ton.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, there were 37 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector rising in the price of commodity prices in August 2019, among which 15 kinds of products increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored products in the sector. The top 3 commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There were 39 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain ratio, 13 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were yellow phosphorus (-27.58%) and epichlorohydrin ( -23.28%), sulfur (-19.38%). This month's average price increase and decrease was 0.03%.
Third, the market outlook
Propane analysts of the business community believe that although the atmosphere is not good in August, as the weather gets colder, the demand will increase in September compared with August. With the expectation of the traditional sales season “Golden September and Silver 10”, it is expected to reverse in September. The situation, the price is gradually rising.
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